Is Your Entire Industry Going Away for Good?
Of the 10’s of millions of jobs lost in the US over the past 2 decades, most are not coming back. Not because they have moved to China or Malaysia or India, but because they simply do not exist anymore. Its called structural unemployment.
Think about all those people that made vinyl records, that worked in printing houses or newspapers, that sold and delivered yellow pages, that made photographic film and that processed photos taken on film, that did manufacturing jobs now done more cheaply and efficiently by robots, that worked in a myriad of jobs that simply do not exist anymore or exist in such small numbers that it is not available as a career path.
So what is next?
Let me give you a glimpse of the immediate future. This is coming in the next decade. Tesla Motors has announced that they will have a fully autonomous (self driving) car by 2017. According to Elon Musk that is a “true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep, and wake up at your destination”. Mercedes Benz followed Tesla’s announcement within a day with the same news. Cadillac also has said that by 2017 they will also have a feature available in all their vehicles “technology that takes control of steering, acceleration and braking at highway speeds of 70 miles per hour or in stop-and-go congested traffic.” By 2020 we will have fully autonomous cars on the road. Japan has announced that they want fully autonomous taxis before the 2020 Olympics. While it may take 2-3 years to get legislative approval in the US for a fully self driving car, it will come.
When they are approved, what industries will go away completely?
Taxi drivers? There are about 250,000 taxi and limo drivers in the US alone. Courier drivers? There are 1,000,000 courier jobs in the US alone. Delivery truck drivers (local, not over the road)? There are 1.25 million in the US alone. Delivery drivers in the restaurant industry. There are 2 million in the US. Postal delivery carriers? There are nearly a half million in the US. People that work for Fedex and UPS in delivery jobs? Over 200,000. Bus drivers? The list goes on.
If just HALF of those listed above that are in those industries lose their jobs to autonomous vehicles over the next decade, that is 2.5-3.0 million people losing their jobs. 1 in every 60 working age adults.
And I have certainly not mentioned even half of the jobs that will be directly affected. Parking attendants and the entire parking industry (parking lots, garages and the companies that service them). If you live in a major urban area like New York City, Chicago, Houston or Los Angeles and don’t have to drive because you can call a ride sharing service and have an autonomous car pick you up in a few minutes, would you even own a car? For many the answer is yes, but for 32% of Americans the answer is they would no longer drive if a fully autonomous vehicle were available. What would it do to the automotive industry to have 30% less cars sold? What would that do to the jobs of those that make vehicles, repair cars and make aftermarket parts? To ancillary industries such as auto insurance, auto financing?
Morgan Stanley estimated that with as little as 30% of people utilizing autonomous vehicles they own or from ride sharing services, that there would be 2 million less traffic accidents and 700,000 less traffic accident related injuries.
What will happen to the jobs in the auto body repair and painting industry? To those in the medical care industry that deal with those injuries?
I think I am being conservative in saying that more than 10 million jobs in the US may go away permanently over the next 2 decades as autonomous vehicles become prevalent in our lives.
Where will those people that have lost their entire industry turn?
The really forward looking people in those industries see the future coming and are already looking.
I suggest that network marketing, one of the fastest growing professions worldwide, and entrepreneurism of all types as an answer to where they will be forced to turn if they are not willing to rely on a government hand out.
What do you think? If you are in those industries where will you turn?
I do hope you decide to join us on our adventure. Once that momentum kicks in, there is no telling what peaks we can climb together.
Please feel free to contact us about the USANA products or the opportunity or simply to tell us your thoughts on what you have seen and read on this website. We appreciate the feedback.
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